Tactical Changes November 2025

Hello Friends!

 Equity markets are off to a shaky start in November. Despite healthy double-digit gains for the year, the mood may be shifting. It feels as though investors are marching forward slowly, but doing so in the dark, and with each step, there’s the lingering question in the back of the mind about whether the next step is the one that leads to a fall. There’s some evidence of a weakening labor market, but the government shutdown is preventing access to full data, clouding the picture. There continue to be huge investments in the AI space, but at the same time, the talk of an AI bubble is accelerating. Financial firms have reported solid earnings, but issues with a few bad actors have investors wondering if there are deeper issues to reckon with. From a technical analysis standpoint, despite increasing highs in most equity indexes, the momentum underlying the new highs has had decreasing peaks, a phenomenon known as bearish divergence, and a historically negative indicator. There’s also the never-ending guessing game of where tariff policy is going to land, and a Federal Reserve that is split on their best course of action and uncommitted on the timing of the next interest rate cut. Markets very much appear to be in a place where it’s uncertain whether prevailing fears are warranted and a slowdown is on the horizon, or if sentiment is more akin to being afraid of its own shadow.

On the brighter side, we quietly crossed the three-year mark of the current bull market last month. Historically, most bull markets that make it this far tend to continue into a fourth year, and those fourth years have often been positive ones. Mortgage rates are also at their lowest point in over three years, with reasonable hope they may drift even lower.

Also of note this month is the recent election, which was arguably a rebuke of the administration’s current course. Perhaps this adds pressure to end the government shutdown, especially as air travel is further affected and the holiday season looms. There has also been significant pushback from the courts on the administration’s trade practices, potentially forcing a rollback of tariffs. An end to the shutdown could create an economic boost through renewed government spending, and tariff reductions would be a positive, according to mainstream economics. Still, perspectives differ on economic policy, and market reactions are unpredictable. So it may amount to a greater dichotomy of outcomes as investors continue to march forward in the dark.

For now, we’re watching, listening, and staying thoughtful. There are no tactical trades in Provizr portfolios this month. So sit back and relax knowing Provizr is working for you! 

Alan Brilliant

Co-Founder, Provizr

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