Tactical Changes March 2026

We are now almost three and a half years into this bull market cycle, a little over one year into the current administration, and just under a week into armed conflict in the Middle East. The economic landscape appears increasingly fragile, and equity markets are showing some signs of weakness. Let’s assess the current risks and challenges that threaten the current market run.

War with Iran is contributing to supply chain concerns, higher oil prices, upward pressure on inflation, and disruptions to world travel. While Middle East conflicts have historically had short-lived economic effects, this one comes at a potentially vulnerable time for markets. Additionally, there is turbulence in parts of the financial sector, as stress in the private credit market has been raising concerns. A shock to financial institutions could pose systemic risk to the economy. The February jobs report was a major disappointment and, at best, offsets the strong report from the prior month, though it could be a signal of a softening labor market. There’s also the continued uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, as well as the persistent threat of business disruption from the emergence of AI applications.

On the positive side, there are two powerful forces that could help support the economy. The Federal Reserve still has room to lower interest rates throughout the year to help stimulate the economy. While inflation remains a concern, the incoming Federal Reserve Chief begins his term in May and may be more inclined lower rates than the current leadership. Additionally, with this being a midterm election year, policymakers historically have strong incentives to maintain stable economic conditions. Whether these factors are enough to offset the current headwinds remains to be seen.

If you are looking to retire or begin drawing investment income within the next couple years, it’s probably a good time to speak with your advisor about securing a financial plan that withstand potential periods of near-term market volatility.

From a technical perspective, we are monitoring the 200-day moving average, which often serves as an important support level for equity indexes, as well as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of market momentum that has struggled to climb above the notable 50 level. Despite these emerging signals, conditions weren’t sufficient to trigger any Provizr portfolio rotations following last month’s move to the Energy sector. There were no tactical changes to Provizr portfolios in March. So sit back and relax knowing Provizr is working for you! 😊

Alan Brilliant

Co-Founder, Provizr

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