Tactical Changes December 2025

Happy Holidays!

Equity markets approach the end of the year on firm footing, with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to a seventh straight month in a dramatic reversal. Corporate earnings continued to outperform expectations, early holiday retail results appear solid, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker is estimating roughly 4% growth. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates again in December and growing speculation of a more dovish posture as the administration prepares to nominate a new Fed chair, investors have been rewarded for staying positioned in risk assets. The economy is not strong everywhere, but it’s strong enough in key areas to keep growth moving and markets resilient.

As we turn the corner into the new year, the labor market remains a focal point. Investors want to see just enough cooling to justify ongoing rate cuts, but not enough weakness to threaten economic momentum. Walking that line contributes to the volatility and mixed expectations that have characterized recent trading, so expect choppiness and unpredictability to continue. The return of full government economic data may either validate the current optimistic narrative or challenge it, which could dictate market tone in the early part of the new year.

Looking ahead, several potential catalysts stand out: new tax laws, mid-term elections, tariff-related court decisions, and multiple geopolitical storylines. These could all play meaningful roles in determining how long the current bull market can run. Expect renewed discussion of a “K-shaped” economy, where one segment of the population experiences accelerating prosperity while another faces increasing financial pressure, and what that divergence may mean for consumer strength and market sustainability.

There are no tactical changes to portfolios in December. Warm wishes for the holidays, and best wishes for a healthy and prosperous new year.

Best,

Alan Brilliant

Co-Founder, Provizr

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