Tactical Changes July 2026

Happy Summer!

Equity markets continue to trade near record highs despite no shortage of headlines that could unsettle investors. While daily market movements often appear driven by the latest economic report or geopolitical event, the underlying forces supporting equities have remained remarkably consistent. Corporate earnings continue to be one of the strongest supports for the market, with analysts expecting earnings growth across every major sector. As long as companies continue to grow profits, investors have generally been willing to look beyond near-term uncertainty and tolerate lofty valuations. These historically high valuations leave little room for error, but solid earnings growth has thus far been sufficient to support market gains.

Leadership within the market also appears to be evolving rather than disappearing. Over the past two years, enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and semiconductor companies has driven much of the market's advance. More recently, investor attention has broadened as leadership has begun to shift toward other sectors. Rather than signaling weakness, this type of rotation is often a healthy characteristic of a maturing bull market, allowing gains to become less dependent on a narrow group of companies. Markets also don't wait for conditions to become perfect. They continually price in what investors believe is most likely over the coming months, not simply what is happening today.

Monetary policy, interest rates, and geopolitics continue to shape investor expectations. Although Federal Reserve officials have maintained a cautious public tone, recent meeting minutes suggest policymakers remain open to lowering interest rates once inflation data provides greater confidence that price pressures are easing. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have drifted higher. That could reflect expectations for continued economic strength, lingering inflation concerns, or some combination of the two, rather than signaling that the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise short-term interest rates again. Additionally, the Iran conflict has periodically introduced volatility, but markets have generally responded favorably whenever tensions appeared to move toward de-escalation.

There are no tactical trades this month in Provizr portfolios. Our tactical allocations remain positioned in the Energy sector and Short-Term Bonds, reflecting continued uncertainty in the Middle East and persistent upward pressure on bond yields.

Alan Brilliant

Co-Founder, Provizr

Looking for more personalized assistance? Book an appointment today!